Source: LOHAS Weekly Newsletter
Published: Saturday, September 01, 2001

This industry is right where the auto industry was between 1890 and 1910,” says Ed Benjamin, president of CycleElectric, an international consulting company that tracks the light electric vehicle industry. “If you look at the cars on the road in 1903; they were wimpy things that broke down all the time and couldn't make it up hills. Who would want to give up their horse and buggy for that?”

Benjamin estimates that about 800,000 electric bikes were sold last year. Only about 30,000 were bought by Americans. The Chinese purchased 240,000. Worldwide sales should reach 1 billion this year and 1.2 billion in 2001. Almost half of that volume will be in China.

The market for electric bikes is expected to explode as China and other developing countries become more affluent. Alan Parker, a Pacific Rim energy and transportation expert, predicted in 1997 that the world would need 1 billion electric bicycles by 2020. Today many observers believe Parker was being too conservative.

“The Chinese people all want cars, but that's not going to happen,” Benjamin says. “Even if they could afford cars, they don't have the infrastructure. Cars need roads and parking spaces. China will continue to move on two wheels, but it will increasingly be motorized electric transportation.”

Pollution is another factor impacting the market. Mopeds and motor scooters powered by two-stroke engines are far dirtier than even the biggest SUV. Six hundred Chinese cities, each with populations over 1 million, have imposed heavy taxes or license fees on two-strokes. Outright bans are rumored by 2003.
Electric bicycles fall into two categories:

E-bikes (easily confused with E-bike, a brand manufactured by Lee Iacocca's EV Global Motors) essentially are electric
mopeds. A rider doesn't have to pedal an e-bike, but peddling can increase speed, conserve the battery, and propels the bike when power runs out.

Pedelecs must be pedaled. Their motors only run when the rider moves the pedals.
Even electric bike zealots concede that e-bikes and pedelecs will never become more than a niche product in the United States, primarily because Americans view two-wheels as recreation, not transportation. When we climb on a two-wheeler, whether a bicycle or a Harley Davidson, chances are we're not going to work or to the store. We're out for fun. Working the rec angle, Ford's Th!nk Mobility is targeting America's burgeoning population of seniors with the slogan “Go riding again.”

The Chinese market, where almost all electric bikes will be made, will drive technological improvements, and increased production will keep them affordable, Benjamin believes. “The Chinese want to keep the guy on the street happy,” he says.

These better bikes will find their way across the Pacific. In just a few years, we should see highly functional electric bicycles selling in this country for $600 to $1,500—which should put them easily within the budget of retired baby boomers who want to “go riding again.”