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| Source: | LOHAS Weekly Newsletter |
| Published: | Wednesday, November 01, 2000 |
The simple answer: maybe. Cars and trucks will certainly become cleaner and
probably more fuel efficient. Consumers will have more choices in alternative fuel
vehicles. But any predictions of the demise of the gasoline-powered, internal combustion engine are a bit premature.
Actually, consumers already have a choice. Electric automobiles have been around for 100 years. Henry Ford made electric-powered automobiles for his friend Thomas Edison. At the turn of the century, several U.S. cities, including Detroit, had an infrastructure in place for recharging electric vehicles. Natural gas, ethanol and other alternative-fuel cars and trucks are nothing new, and small, fuel-efficient economy cars have sat for years
unappreciated on dealers' lots while gas-hungry SUVs sailed off showroom floors and onto America's highways.
So why the sudden interest in alternative transportation? The answer is entwined in
politics, economics, demographics and some exciting technological developments.
The Challenge
About 680 million vehicles of various shapes and sizes are on the road today. The United States accounts for one-third of those. By 2050, the world is expected to have 3.5 billion to 4 billion vehicles. “That's a fivefold increase in worldwide vehicles in 50 years,” says Ed Wall, coordinator for the U.S. Department of Energy's Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles. “And almost all of this increase will occur in developing countries. The question will be, How will all those cars be fueled?”
The automobile and its effect on the world's environment and economy transcend national borders. Wall points out that the United States is home to 5 percent of the world's population but consumes 25 percent of the world's petroleum production.
“The world opinion is that this is a very small planet,” says Lindsay Brooke, executive editor of Automotive Industries magazine. “Global warming is increasingly becoming a political issue. Regulations are becoming tighter, and the Third World is quickly adopting U.S. and European standards. This growth in the worldwide driving population is forcing U.S companies to look at alternatives.”
The federal government has compelling reasons to help the American automobile industry respond to this changing market. Domestic automobile manufacturing accounts for 4.5 percent of our gross national product and one of every seven American jobs.
The challenge to the automotive industry is to make vehicles cleaner and less reliant on nonrenewable energy supplies. While related, the two prongs of this challenge are in fact distinct.
One source of confusion is the distinction between pollutants and “greenhouse” gases like carbon dioxide. Most federal and state regulations focus on pollutants—emissions with proven consequences on health. Greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, may add to global warming but have no immediate effect on our health. Greenhouse gas emissions are directly related to fuel consumption, while pollutants are not.
Larger vehicles typically consume more fuel, so they create more greenhouse gases. But large vehicles—especially pricier large vehicles—have the sticker price to absorb the additional costs associated with larger catalytic converters and more sophisticated sensor systems. From a pollution standpoint, these vehicles may be cleaner than a small economy car with twice the gas mileage.
New diesel-powered cars are quieter and 40 percent to 50 percent more fuel efficient than they were a decade ago. But while nearly 50 percent of the cars sold in Europe today are diesel, the technology hasn't been introduced on our shores because these vehicles wouldn't meet our emissions standards.
From a regulatory standpoint, the federal government and states have focused on improving emissions. Federal funding, however, is directed toward developing more fuel-efficient vehicles and alternative-fuel supplies.
Electric Avenue
Each alternative technology has strengths and drawbacks. Electric vehicles are safe, reliable, fast and have plenty of pick-up. Their drawback is range.
“If you ask most people what kind of mileage they expect from a tank of gas, they'll say about 300 miles,” says Jeff Kuhlman, General Motors' director of energy and environment communications. “It becomes readily apparent that with any vehicle powered by a battery, what you get is a car on a long extension cord. If you've ever driven an electric vehicle, you'll find yourself constantly watching the gauge.”
This is not to say battery-powered vehicles have no place, or that there have been no technological advancements. GM has leased or sold 800 to 850 EV-1s since it introduced them in 1997. Ford recently announced that it produced its one-thousandth electric Ranger EV pick-up truck. DaimlerChrysler has produced about 140 electric Epic minivans, and Chevrolet, Honda, Nissan and Toyota have electric demonstration models. Several independent companies also produce a very limited number of battery-powered conversion vehicles.
Jim Francfort, technical program manager for the Idaho National Engineering and Environment Laboratory, says there are 5,000 to 6,000 electric vehicles on America's roads. The Electric Vehicle Association of the Americas estimates that major auto makers sold or leased 3,080 electric light-duty passenger vehicles in the United States since 1996.
Battery technology is improving. Old-style lead acid batteries provided enough juice to power a car for about 60 miles. Advanced lead batteries extended a vehicle's range to 75 to 90 miles. Nickel metal hydride batteries can take a typical vehicle 140 to 145 miles per charge. But each technological advancement comes with a price tag. A lead power pack costs about $6,000 compared to $30,000 to $40,000 for a nickel metal hydride battery.
Recharging time also is a drawback for electric vehicles. Consider having to wait four to eight hours to refuel your vehicle at the “pumps.” High-speed chargers are being developed, but they will be very expensive.
“We really think electric vehicles have a place,” says Brendan Prebo, technology spokeperson for Ford. “There's a demand and there is a use, but unless there is a major breakthrough in batteries, full-function electric vehicles will only be a niche. We're looking very closely at those applications and those opportunities.”
Battery-powered transportation shows the greatest promise in fleets (see sidebar, pg. 31) and in small, specialty vehicles. By 2020, a billion electric bicycles—essentially battery-assisted mopeds—will be sold worldwide, according to Cycle Electric International, a consulting firm that specializes in light electric vehicles. Last year 40,000 electric bikes were sold in the United States and 500,000 were sold worldwide. And sales, especially in developing countries, are expected to explode. Concerns over air pollution recently led the governments of 600 Chinese cities with populations of 1 million or more to stop issuing permits for two-cycle powered vehicles, making electric bikes the only two-wheel alternative to standard bicycles.
Electric bikes may be many Americans' first introduction to electric transportation. At least 10 U.S. companies are producing electric bikes, including Detroit icon Lee Iacocca's EV Global Motors, which sells E-bikes through participating car dealerships. Ford will soon introduce two electric bicycles that will be sold through its dealerships, and DaimlerChrysler also is planning to bring to the United States its Mercedes Benz electric bike, which has been available for years in Europe.
Neighborhood cars—small electric vehicles capable of traveling up to 30 mph—also will find their niche. Besides serving as personal transportation around business parks and residential communities, these vehicles are suited for use by security patrols or meter readers or as transportation to and from mass transit stops.
In the neighborhood car class, Ford is launching the Th!nk Neighbor, a vehicle capable of traveling about 30 miles with a maximum speed of 25 mph. The car is the first product from Ford's newly launched Th!nk Group, a division of the company dedicated to developing alternative personal transportation solutions. Next year Ford plans to bring out the Th!nk City, a street-legal electric vehicle that will go 55 mph and travel 50 miles between charges. Th!nk City has been available in Europe since December 1999.
Hybrids: Two Ways to Go
Imagine a gasoline-powered car that gets 70-plus mpg or an electric car that never needs recharging. Although the technology varies, hybrids are powered by a gasoline (or sometimes diesel) engine and an electric motor. The gasoline engine recharges the battery pack that powers the electric engine. In some cases, energy recaptured during braking or while the vehicle slows also goes toward recharging the batteries. Some hybrids shut the gasoline engine off when the vehicle stops and use the electric motor to bring it back to motion. Most improve mileage by reducing wind drag and weight through innovative design and the use of alternative materials. The end result is a cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicle capable of traveling 500 miles or more before refueling.
Honda should sell 6,500 Insight hybrids this year in the United States and plans on rolling out a hybridized model of its popular Civic compact in 2001. Toyota, the pioneer of hybrid carmakers with its introduction in Japan of the Prius in 1997, will bring out a hybrid version of the Estima minivan in Japan by next spring. Ford, DaimlerChrysler and General Motors each introduced a hybrid prototype earlier this year and plan to begin marketing them in the very near future. Ford has announced that it will come out with a hybrid model of its Escape SUV that will get 40 mpg. DaimlerChrysler has a hybrid version of its Durango SUV but may not announce its release until Congress decides on a hybrid tax incentive.
So what's the downside? Cost. According to Brooke, putting two engines in a vehicle adds $5,000 to $7,500 to the production cost. Honda and Toyota, whose hybrids cost around $20,000, are selling the vehicles at a loss this year to prime the pump of market demand.
“That's the Japanese way,” Brooke says. “They're willing to take the hit to prove the technology and get the production and design process in motion.”
Francfort, from the Idaho National Engineering and Environment Laboratory, estimates that 2,400 hybrids, many of them experimental and demonstration models, are currently on the road. Anna Crull, a project analyst with Business Communications Co. Inc., of Norwalk, Conn., forecasts that $3.5 billion worth of hybrid vehicles will be sold in the United States by 2005. “Hybrids are workable, and they're here and now,” Crull says.
Crull, along with Col. Dick Hook, authored a study examining all types of
electric and hybrid vehicles—from bikes, golf carts and forklifts to buses and trucks. The total electric vehicle market is $1.85
billion, says Crull. Small electric vehicles account for 88 percent of the market. Hybrids sales total about $1 million. The study forecasts that the total electric vehicle market will be $6.8 billion by 2005. Small vehicles will make up 40 percent of the
market and hybrids 51 percent.
What's Next?
Fuel cells will be the next major advancement in alternative transportation. Fuel cells combine hydrogen with oxygen, break the hydrogen into protons and electrons, and create electricity without combustion. The only by-products of the process are water and heat. The electricity is created emission-free, but, depending on how the hydrogen is delivered to the fuel cell, other pollutants may result. Reliance on another fuel supply may also be called for.
Another study by Business Communications Co. predicts the market for fuel cells, which includes nontransportation applications, will surge to $1.3 billion in 2003.
Fuel cells' size and cost have precluded them from commercial transportation applications, but rapid technological breakthroughs are erasing these obstacles. Fuel cells are now being produced small enough to power laptop computers. And although costs have been cut tenfold in the last three years, analysts say another tenfold cost reduction must occur before fuel cells will be commercially viable for transportation applications. Still, most industry insiders predict fuel cell-powered cars will be on the market in three to five years. Five fuel cell buses are already being tested in Chicago and Washington. However, fuel cell vehicles that are both affordable and competitive with conventional automobiles are a ways down the road.
“We don't really see fuel cell vehicles making significant inroads into the market for 10 years, and it may take 20 years,” Tomohiko Dawanabe, director of Honda's Tochigi Research and Development Centre, told Envirolink News Service.
Nonetheless, this fall Honda announced a new four-seat car powered by fuel cells. Called the FCX-V3, the car has an engine with 22 percent more power and 25 percent less weight than the motor of the two-seat fuel cell car that the company introduced a year ago. Powered by a fuel cell stack made by Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), the FCX-V3 will undergo shakedown testing in the California Fuel Cell Partnership program, which brings together oil firms and major car manufacturers for research purposes.
The major hurdle for fuel cells is the required infrastructure for delivering hydrogen to the vehicle. A widespread network of hydrogen pumps will be expensive and unlikely in the foreseeable future. The alternative is to equip the vehicle with a reformer that strips hydrogen from another fuel. Despite such obstacles, auto makers seem to have faith in fuel cells; most of the major players are developing fuel cell technology.
Advancements in fuel technology typically don't get as much attention as new power sources or sexy new designs, but fuel technology may have as much or more effect on this country's future transportation landscape.
Diesel fuel is being produced from such diverse materials as rapeseed, soy, mustard seed, animal fat and waste grease. Work is under way to produce ethanol from sugar cane scraps and wood. The United States produces 1.5 billion gallons of ethanol each year, some of which goes toward powering about 400,000 flexible-fuel vehicles, which can operate on gasoline or any mixture of gas and ethanol up to 85 percent ethanol. Natural gas and propane vehicles have been on the road for more than a decade, but their application is limited by their range and lack of refueling infrastructure.
Where infrastructure and technology fall short, government regulation often takes up the slack. “The truth is that cars today are so clean that it is virtually impossible to commit suicide in your garage by running your engine and inhaling the fumes,” Brooke says. “They are so clean for two reasons: catalytic technology and computerized sensors. These have added to the cost of the vehicle, but no one is willing to go back to the way it was. The problem is that sulfur in gasoline limits the effectiveness of catalytic converters.” New regulations limiting the amount of sulfur in gasoline and diesel fuel promise to make even traditional vehicles cleaner and more efficient.
The next phase of federal emission guidelines, slated to go into effect in 2004, will require vehicles to meet even tougher standards and, more significantly, will require light trucks, minivans and SUVs to adhere to the same standards as passenger cars.
In 2003, the state of California will require all major auto companies to have zero-emission (electric) vehicles account for at least 4 percent of in-state sales and low-emission (hybrid) vehicles account for at least 6 percent. Several states in the Northeast are also in the process of adopting California's guidelines. As pollution standards are tightened, alternative transportation likely will become more accessible and more accepted.
“I see this as similar to what the Volkswagen did to America's attitudes toward small cars,” Brooke says. “As people started seeing more VWs on their block, small cars didn't seem so unusual and the standard big car didn't seem like the only answer. People will begin to see all these new technologies and they'll start thinking of new technologies to match their needs.
“If you ask me what the future fleet will look like,” Brooke goes on, “I'd say that it will be a mix of all these things. You'll continue to see cleaner piston engines, along with electric cars, hybrids, fuel cells and alternative-fuel vehicles. Each will be a piece of the pie.”
No Small Fleet
Business needs often match the strengths of
electric and alternative-fuel vehicles
Electric and alternative-fuel vehicles share two drawbacks: Their range is limited and they typically require a special infrastructure to refuel or recharge. These limitations have made owning one of these vehicles impractical for most Americans but don't preclude them from many commercial or service applications.
Operating a fleet of these clean, quiet, environmentally responsible vehicles often makes sense, so it's not surprising that the vast majority of alternative vehicles are owned by government agencies and businesses. A fleet of alternative vehicles can justify the cost associated with establishing and maintaining specialized refueling or recharging stations. And fleet vehicles that travel within a defined area on a regular route or return regularly to a home base don't risk being caught away from a refueling or recharging station.
“The majority of our sales go to governments and municipalities that are mandated to use a certain number of alternative-fuel vehicles,” says Jim Snider, who is responsible for sales and marketing for DaimlerChrysler's alternative-fuel vehicles.
More than 200 DaimlerChrysler EPICs, an electric version of the popular Dodge Caravan, are in use around the country. The U.S. Postal Service uses EPICs in California and New York, while the Los Angeles World Airports recently added the minivans to their passenger-shuttle fleets.
Almost all of the 10,000 alternative-fuel and electric vehicles that Ford makes each year go to fleets, according to the company's technology spokesperson, Brendan Prebo. The majority are F-series pickups and Econoline vans that run on propane, natural gas or ethanol.
Ford recently delivered 500 alternative-fuel delivery trucks to post offices in California, and the postal service has an option to purchase another 5,500 vehicles. Postal routes are ideal for electric vehicles, says Prebo. “Most postal vehicles travel a daily loop of no more than 12 miles and return to a main lot every night,” he points out. “If you've ever driven an electric vehicle, you know that they are great at short stops and starts, which is what postal trucks do all day.”
General Motors has an electric version of the Chevy S-10 pickup
as well as an alternative-fuel version of the S-10 and the full-size Sonoma pickup. General Motors also is testing a 40-foot, hybrid/electric bus in New York City and plans to launch a demo version of a full-size hybrid pickup in New York and California.
Electric bicycles also are being put to work. Several police departments are using electric bikes to add horsepower to their bicycle patrols. Sebastopol, Calif.-based Zapworld.com markets an electric bike specifically designed for law enforcement. More that 200 of the bikes are in use in cities such as Santa Rosa, Calif.; San Francisco; Salt Lake City; and Boston.